Scientists report that the most severe impacts of El Ni\u00f1o on rainfall and temperature often occur with a delay of one to two months. This lag means that even after initial signs of the phenomenon, significant weather disruptions can still emerge later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Southwest monsoon rainfall in July 2.4% above normal<\/em> Improved July rains boosted sowing of soyabean and pulses<\/em> IMD forecast of below-normal rainfall for August and September<\/em> Risk of suppressed rains affecting late kharif and rabi crops<\/em> Potential impact of weak August and September rains on crop yields<\/em> India Holds Large Public Stocks of Rice, Wheat, and Pulses<\/em> Role of irrigation and grain reserves as economic buffers<\/em> Reserve Bank of India and S&P Global Ratings’ assessment of economic risks<\/em> Global agencies forecast that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will continue to rise. This trend could sustain El Ni\u00f1o conditions into the early months of 2027. The projection…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":153,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"yoast_head":"\r\n
In July, India\u2019s southwest monsoon delivered rainfall that was 2.4% above the normal level. This marked a rebound in precipitation despite the concurrent strengthening of El Ni\u00f1o conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The above-normal July rainfall led to increased sowing of crops such as soyabean and pulses. Farmers took advantage of the improved moisture conditions to plant these kharif crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for the months of August and September. This prediction adds to concerns about potential agricultural stress during the late monsoon period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Due to the lag in El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s effects, suppressed rainfall could still impact late kharif and rabi season crops. Crops at risk include wheat, mustard, and potatoes, which are sensitive to rainfall patterns during their growth stages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If rainfall in August and September remains weak, agricultural crops in India could experience stress that would reduce yields. Lower yields would tighten domestic food supplies and contribute to higher food inflation. This scenario could also negatively affect rural incomes and reduce rural demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
India maintains substantial public reserves of rice, wheat, and pulses. These stocks could be released to the market if necessary to curb domestic inflation<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Existing irrigation systems and grain reserves in India are seen as buffers that can help prevent a broad economic slowdown despite potential monsoon-related agricultural stress. These resources can mitigate the impact of reduced rainfall on food supply and prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Reserve Bank of India and S&P Global Ratings identify the main risks from the current monsoon and El Ni\u00f1o conditions as being related to food prices and rural demand. They do not foresee a broad economic slowdown due to existing buffers such as irrigation infrastructure and grain reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/aerobharatai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Inida1.jpeg\")
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